Coca Cola European Partners about first Half of 2016

Coca Cola European Partners released the Interim Results for the Six Months Ended 1 July 2016 (link)

Earnings:

First-half diluted earnings per share were €0.74 on a reported basis or €0.83 on a pro forma comparable basis, including a negative currency translation impact of €0.02.

Revenue:

On a territory basis, Iberia revenues were up 1.5 per cent, as revenue per unit case increased ahead of volume. Revenue in Germany declined 0.5 per cent, in part due to the impact of a transition to recyclable PET from returnable PET.

Great Britain revenues were down 10.5 per cent, driven by the negative impact of an approximately 6.0 per cent decline for the British pound versus the Euro …

Revenue in France declined 4.5 per cent, …

I will watch this. I hope the revenue-decline isn’t becoming a trend.

 

Costs:

Pro forma comparable cost of sales totaled €3.3 billion, down 3.5 per cent, or down 2.0 per cent on a pro forma comparable and fx-neutral basis.

For 2016, CCEP expects revenue to be flat with operating profit growth in a modest mid-single-digit range and diluted earnings per share in a mid-teen range, all on a comparable and fx-neutral basis.

I like that they lowered their costs.

 

Dividends:

Board has approved an initial quarterly dividend of €0.17, equivalent to an annualised dividend of €0.68 per share

I expected 0,72 €Dividend for 2016 (link), I hope they will catch up with my expectations till 2019.

 

Share Buybacks:

No statement

 

Bottom Line:

For the time being I see nothing alarming here. I realy don’t like the revenue decline and will watch this to ensure that I don’t missed some issues/problems. Also I will track their success with cost cutting though synergies. It’s the first report of them as a combined company, I’m looking forward to their first annual report.

 

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From my 3. June 2016 Post:

This is my final calculation:

CCEP_spread3.PNG

In this calculation I assumed that:

  • Revenue, EBITDA & Income will stay flat
  • Synergies ($350mn) will unfold in 2019
  • Tax Rate 28%
  • Debt will be at 3,5x EBITDA, 2% interests rate
  • Shares outstanding stay flat

 

I have not adjusted:

  • Revenue and EBIT – maybe there is some (single digit) growth
  • Tax Rate – maybe tax loopholes in Europe will be closed
  • No FX adjustments
  • No share buybacks, note: Coca-Cola Enterprises was a big canibal (~25% in 5 years) maybe CCEP will be too

You can finde some EPS numbers from CCEP in this presentation (link)

Please check out my new permanent menu-site: “Quality Sources”

Please check out my new permanent menu-site “Quality Sources” which you should find somewere her😉

pfeil-nach-rechts-oben_318-28808

(when you are on valuetradblog.com)

The dayly financial news are often fast, loud and not interesting in the matter – just in a cachy and scarry headline. Sometimes I have the feeling that moved sport reporters are making financial news.

On this site I want to list a different kind of source for investment ideas, advice and more which are of higher quality.

To give a foretaste, some liks you can find in on the page:

Leucadia – (link)

RIT Capital Partners – (link)

KKR – (portfolio); (publications)

Seth Klarman – Baupost (link | google search)

Jim Chanos – Kynikos (link | google search)

Yale Investments Offie – (link)

/r/SecurityAnalysis @ Reddit – linklists of institutional investors-reports and and sometimes good discussions

Note: If you know some links that could be helpfull please feel free to write about them in the comments segment.

 

Random thought on selling stocks

Circle of Competence don’t means that you have to know everything about a company and you will do fine for me – you also have to know yourself – how will you react under pressure, under seductions? As Ben Graham have written, you can find the biggest danger for your portfolio in the mirror.

One of the hardest tasks in investing is finding out how to act right when selling a stock. With this article I will look at the difficulties and forces that come into play when I’m thinking of how to sell a stock. I hope this will make me better in that area.

 

Beeing aware of some psychological pitfalls

Commitments

If people commit, orally or in writing, to an idea or goal, they are more likely to honor that commitment because of establishing that idea or goal as being congruent with their self-image. Robert Cialdini on Wikipedia

Seeing oneself as a value-investor and buying a stock is a perfect commitment according to Cialdini. Buying a stock is linked with:

  • creating a self-image (I am a value investor who is practising buy-and-hold)
  • effort (you research, you push the buy-button, you pay the money)
  • a decision
  • (maybe) making your decision public (blog, friends, your broker)

Once a commitment has been made, the psychological program that is called “I made that decision-I will stand to it” starts working. You can imagine easily how this affects the selling of an already owned stock.

Continue reading

Comfort Systems USA

Lately Eddy from CWS-Blog mentioned Comfort Systems USA as an interesting company (link) The company describes itself as “a leading provider of commercial, industrial and institutional heating, ventilation and air conditioning (“HVAC”) services.” Let’s find out if that company is an interesting investment!

Some sources:

IR Page

Latest Presentation (pdf)

Latest Quarterly report (pdf) , Comfort Systems USA Reports Second Quarter 2016 Results

First Look:

Comfort Systems USA is a nationwide company that provides commercial HVAC*, mechanical and electrical contracting to customers ranging from small businesses to Fortune 500 companies.  Headquartered in Houston, TX.

comfort-systems-logo

When looking at the pictures on their Homepage, I have to think of Precision Castparts or Rolls Royce and their Aftermarket-Revenue. I will find out if Service represents a big part of their revenue.

Continue reading

Some links and some HealthCareStocks worth a look

  • Gannon and Hoang writing about MSC Industrial Direct (MSM): A Metalworking Supply Company (link)
  • The Brooklyn Investor Blog is active again (link I), (link II)
  • I believe my pig whistles: Muddy Water, who famously short Ströer, released Ströer AGM Transcript (link)

ten Doornkaat: You then said you had an investigation conducted by Ernst & Young (EY). This is the same company that prepared the annual financial statements. What did you expect? That they would come forward and say, Oops, sorry, we’ve made a mistake, we’re returning our auditor’s licence to practice? This is laughable.

Müller:
No need. The technology is so sophisticated that I can hear you even when I’m
peeing.
ten Doornkaat:
Good. Then perhaps you can come up with some answers while you’re peeing, too.
(Laughter)
Tüngler:  A clear opinion has emerged, which we at the DSW share, that the numbers
have not been manipulated, massaged or falsified.

 

Continue reading

Some links

Berkowitz

Bruce Berkowitz Comments on Individual Holdings in Mid-Year Letter (link)

The Funds own senior bonds of Atwood due 2020 with a 17% yield to maturity. Year-to-date, Atwood has retired over 30% these bonds due 2020 via open market purchases and a $150 million cash tender offer announced in late June. These events indicate that management believes it has the financial wherewithal to meet all obligations and take advantage of market mispricing. An existing $220 million cash balance, available credit line, and current contractual backlog provide ample liquidity.

Atwood Oceanics is a leading offshore driller

 

FPA Capital

FPA Capital Fund 2nd Quarter 2016 Commentary (link)

 

 

First look at Fiserv

Fiserv, Inc., is an American provider of financial services technology. The company’s clients include banks, thrifts, credit unions, securities broker dealers, leasing and finance companies, and retailers, among others. I see Fiserv as a high quality buisiness with good predictability.

This are Fiserv’s Sales (left) and Earnings (right) per Share (provided by ariva.de)

Fiserv_SalesPS_and_EPS.PNG

This is the PE Ratio for which FISV was selling for since 2000 (provided by Gurufocus.com):

Fiserv_PE Ratio.PNG

The expected EPS-Range for 2016 is $4.38 to $4.45 per share. The stock is selling for about 105 USD. So the expected PE-Ratio is now at about 24 to 23,6 – which is normal for a company of this quality.

SimFin.com, the Wikipedia for financial data – free

Today I found a new, free source of financial data that I want to share with you:
SimFin is a crowd-sourcing platform for free high quality fundamental financial data.  Access the SimFin application at https://simfin.com/start
logo
What I like the most about this service is, that they use the original reporting form. Usually free databases provide standardised numbers like Revenue, EBITDA, EBIT and Operating Income. Here you can choose between a standardised version and the original reporting form.
For example they provide the revenue data for Tesla Motors Inc. sorted by “Automotive” and “Services and other” or for GoldmanSachs Group Inc. you get the revenue sorted by  sectors like “Investment banking “, “Commissions and fees  ” and so on … this gives you a better overview about the special character of a business.
The numbers are sorted in Income statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement.

Some links:

Berkshire Hathaway (link)
J M Smucker (link)
GoldmanSachs (link)
Nice service: when you like what you see you can download the data as excel spreadsheet!
As always, the problem with every Wikipedia-like database is that everybody can write false articles/data in it. So before making big decisions, please double-check the data. For getting a first overview about a company this service seems perfect. Did I already mentioned that the service is free?
Note: The Service is in Beta stadium. Sometimes the system is not working fast and there is not all data available